Thanks for reading Andrew’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. As Ukraine’s counter-offensive enters its third week, its overall shape is becoming apparent: a three-axis advance, with the southernmost thrust, in Zaporizhska Oblast emerging as the main effort. Here Ukrainian forces launched their attack from Orikhiv southwest towards Tokmak, a town that lies midway between their line of departure, and the Sea of Azov, and which has strategic value as a road and rail hub and gateway to Crimea (see map). Beyond Tokmak lies Melitopol, a town that appears likely to the offensive’s main objective.
The Ukrainians need to make an attack from behind, burn the country as Grant did in the civil war. The crops will recover, tell those loyal to Ukraine to flee and prepare their homes. There is fairness to Russian tactics and Ukrainians should not take the moral high ground.
"There is no sanctuary in modern warfare." Hopefully, whatever safe harbor currently enjoyed by those responsible for the cover-up of the worst Marine-on-Marine friendly fire incident in modern history doesn't last. I'd encourage you to listen to the podcast series NPR Embedded Taking Cover. Fallujah, April 12, 2004. Your dead fellow Marines and those who served alongside them, and their families, deserve better. Why isn't this incident being taught in the classrooms, Andrew? Don't we at least owe them that?
Andy, curious on your thoughts regarding the last 24 hours and if this creates an opportunity for this counter offensive or if Ukraine will “stick to the plan” ?
Its very interesting how west is sure of the Ukranian victory, and places like Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan is simply disregarded. For Russia lost is not acceptable, people in Russia united around this cause. Sanctions failed, Russia military industrial complex is on the rise, recovering USSR factories.
They make about new 20 tanks of various modifications every month, They have reserve of tanks from USSR of 12000 units which is upgrading on a daily basis.
Shoigu just reported 135,000 people signed a contract with MoD since this Feb and 3500 tanks/bmp's etc was allocated.
Ukraine at this rate will become a ruin in the middle of Europe and Russia will have its buffer.
This is insane, this war needs to stop, I just don't see how Ukraine can win on the battlefield, it just no way.
Another interesting assumption is that RUS military somehow can't fight and not able to learn, just a pure absurd.
I guess in the couple years I will come back to review this comment.
I do not see how Ukrainian forces plan to be successful with the current level of support by the West - minimal heavy weapons, no air support yet. One would expect significant superiority to fight against well entrenched position in the South - Russia had 9 months to prep. I do not think it is a sound strategy to assume that Russia, with all its deficiencies, would just fold on the southern front.
Well, west finally found a challenge and can't just simply roll over the Russia.
At the end it does not matter how much West willing to provide, stretched supply lines would be main issue. I just wonder if this is really going to come down to the last Ukrainian or Russian . I guess we will see.
Thanks James -- I should have distinguished between the A-6 with its game changing 55 cal gun versus the older A4. The Ukrainians have - according to Forbes -- only 24 of the latter, which is still higher than the number I gave (taken from Perun - who has proven to be reliable in the past), but still I think you will agree, very low for requirements. Many thanks for taking the time to read the article and for providing input. My best, Andy
The Ukrainians need to make an attack from behind, burn the country as Grant did in the civil war. The crops will recover, tell those loyal to Ukraine to flee and prepare their homes. There is fairness to Russian tactics and Ukrainians should not take the moral high ground.
"There is no sanctuary in modern warfare." Hopefully, whatever safe harbor currently enjoyed by those responsible for the cover-up of the worst Marine-on-Marine friendly fire incident in modern history doesn't last. I'd encourage you to listen to the podcast series NPR Embedded Taking Cover. Fallujah, April 12, 2004. Your dead fellow Marines and those who served alongside them, and their families, deserve better. Why isn't this incident being taught in the classrooms, Andrew? Don't we at least owe them that?
Andy, curious on your thoughts regarding the last 24 hours and if this creates an opportunity for this counter offensive or if Ukraine will “stick to the plan” ?
Its very interesting how west is sure of the Ukranian victory, and places like Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan is simply disregarded. For Russia lost is not acceptable, people in Russia united around this cause. Sanctions failed, Russia military industrial complex is on the rise, recovering USSR factories.
They make about new 20 tanks of various modifications every month, They have reserve of tanks from USSR of 12000 units which is upgrading on a daily basis.
Shoigu just reported 135,000 people signed a contract with MoD since this Feb and 3500 tanks/bmp's etc was allocated.
Ukraine at this rate will become a ruin in the middle of Europe and Russia will have its buffer.
This is insane, this war needs to stop, I just don't see how Ukraine can win on the battlefield, it just no way.
Another interesting assumption is that RUS military somehow can't fight and not able to learn, just a pure absurd.
I guess in the couple years I will come back to review this comment.
I do not see how Ukrainian forces plan to be successful with the current level of support by the West - minimal heavy weapons, no air support yet. One would expect significant superiority to fight against well entrenched position in the South - Russia had 9 months to prep. I do not think it is a sound strategy to assume that Russia, with all its deficiencies, would just fold on the southern front.
Well, west finally found a challenge and can't just simply roll over the Russia.
At the end it does not matter how much West willing to provide, stretched supply lines would be main issue. I just wonder if this is really going to come down to the last Ukrainian or Russian . I guess we will see.
Well written! Thanks!
Four Leopards consist of 25% of the total Leopard inventory? 16 units in total? What can they even do with that?
Forbes indicates at least 71 Leopard 2 units with 14 additional in the queue.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/22/more-leopard-2-tanks-are-bound-for-ukraine-as-kyiv-makes-long-term-plans-for-its-armored-battalions/
Thanks James -- I should have distinguished between the A-6 with its game changing 55 cal gun versus the older A4. The Ukrainians have - according to Forbes -- only 24 of the latter, which is still higher than the number I gave (taken from Perun - who has proven to be reliable in the past), but still I think you will agree, very low for requirements. Many thanks for taking the time to read the article and for providing input. My best, Andy